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Levels of Estimate Accuracy

Estimates are just that, an estimate of future costs.

The accuracy of estimates can vary greatly and generally range between -50% to +50% of the cost of the project depending on the type of estimate used.

Project managers commonly use the following types of estimates for their project estimates:

Rough-Order-of-Magnitude (ROM) Estimates

  • ROM estimates are used early in the project life cycle, typically during the project selection and approval stage when few details are available
  • Used by stakeholders decide if a project is within their means
  • ROMs can range in accuracy between -50% to +50%
  • Sometimes called a “green thumb” or “gut’ estimate
  • ROM estimates are always refined during the project planning process

Budget Estimates

  • A budget estimate is an estimate of the funds allocated for the project
  • This is the maximum amount of money an organization or stakeholders is willing to spend on a project
  • There is a difference between an estimate and a budget
    • Estimate approximates the cost of the project
    • Budget is what is allowed to be spent on the project
  • Budgetary estimates can range between -10% to +25%

Definitive Estimates

  • Definitive estimates are detailed and accurate cost estimates
  • They are created after the project’s scope and requirements are well defined
  • Definitive estimates are created during the latter stages of the project when engineering or construction is usually about 40% complete
  • Definitive estimate accuracy ranges between -5% to +10%

When providing or discussing project estimates, be sure to note which of the three types of estimates were used to generate the estimate.